Methodology and Topline for iMediaEthics’ Iran Nuclear Poll Questions

by David W. Moore August 17, 2015 05:59 AM EST

Prepared by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, August 2015

See iMediaEthics report on its Iran Nuclear Deal poll here.

The PSRAI August 2015 Omnibus Week 1 obtained telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults living in the continental United States. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (500) and cell phone (500, including 287 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English and Spanish by Princeton Data Source from August 6 to 9, 2015. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 3.8 percentage points.

Final Topline Results

August 10, 2015

Total:	1,000 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: plus or minus 3.8 percentage points
Form A half sample	481 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: plus or minus 5.5 percentage points
Form B half sample	519 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: plus or minus 5.2 percentage points

INTERVIEW DATES: August 6-9, 2015

LANDLINE INTRODUCTION:

Hello, my name is _________________ and I’m calling for Princeton Survey Research. We’re conducting a study about some important issues today, and would like to include your household. [RANDOMIZE RESPONDENT SELECTION: May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT MALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home? (IF NO MALE AT HOME NOW, ASK: May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT FEMALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home?) / May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT FEMALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home? (IF NO FEMALE AT HOME NOW, ASK: May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT MALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home?)]

CELL PHONE INTRO:

Hello, I am ___ calling for Princeton Survey Research. We’re conducting a study about some important issues today. [IF RESPONDENT SAYS DRIVING/UNABLE TO TAKE CALL: Thank you. We will try you another time…]

CELL PHONE SCREENING INTERVIEW:

S1. Are you under 18 years old, OR are you 18 or older? [CONTINUE IF 18 OR OLDER; ALL OTHERS TERMINATE]

READ TO ALL CELL PHONE – INTRODUCTION TO MAIN INTERVIEW: If you are now driving a car or doing any activity requiring your full attention, I need to call you back later. The first question is…

Notes: Results shown in percentages. Due to rounding, percentages may not add to 100%. An asterisk (*) indicates values less than 0.5%. Volunteered responses are indicated by (VOL.).

IMED1. How much would you say you know about a recent agreement involving the United States and Iran’s nuclear program? Do you know (READ)

A lot about the agreement	8
A fair amount	32
Not much,	31
Nothing at all	28
(VOL.) Don’t know	1
(VOL.) Refused	*

IMED2A. Based on what you’ve heard or read in the news, do you think Congress should support or oppose the agreement – or are you unsure?

Based on Form A half sample (n=481)

Support	17
Oppose	24
Unsure/Don’t know	57
(VOL.) Refused	1

IMED2A-1. If Congress votes to oppose the agreement, how upset would you be (READ)

Based on those who support Iran agreement/Form A half sample (n=101)

Very	40
Somewhat	32
Not too	13
Not upset at all	10
(VOL.) Don’t know	3
(VOL.) Refused	1

IMED2A-2. If Congress votes to support the agreement, how upset would you be (READ)

Based on those who oppose Iran agreement//Form A half sample (n=136)

Very	56
Somewhat	29
Not too	5
Not upset at all	5
(VOL.) Don’t know	3
(VOL.) Refused	3

Combined results of IMED2A, IMED2A-1 AND IMED2A-2

Based on what you’ve heard or read in the news, do you think Congress should support or oppose the agreement – or are you unsure?

12 Support (and would be upset if Congress opposes agreement)

5 Support (but not upset if Congress opposes agreement)

59 No opinion

4 Oppose (but not upset if Congress supports agreement)

21 Oppose (and upset if Congress supports agreement)

IMED2A-3. Do you lean toward Congress supporting or opposing the agreement?

Based on those who are unsure about Iran agreement//Form A half sample (n=244)

Lean support	16
Lean oppose	18
(VOL.) Don’t lean	13
(VOL.) Don’t know	51
(VOL.) Refused	3

IMED3A. Just your best guess – what do you think the nuclear agreement with Iran is intended to do? Does it intend to: [FORM C: READ ANSWERS 1-3, THEN 4; FORM D: READ ANSWERS 3-1, THEN 4] [FORM C IS HALF SAMPLE OF FORM A; FORM D IS OTHER HALF OF SAMPLE OF FORM A]

Based on Form A half sample (n=481)

Prevent Iran from getting any nuclear weapons	25
Sure about answer	18
Not sure about answer	7
Authorize Iran to produce a limited number of nuclear weapons	11
Allow Iran to share U.S. nuclear technology to build nuclear power plants	9
Or are you unsure?	51
(VOL.) Refused	4

IMED4A. Are you sure about that, or are you not sure? [IF NECESSARY: that the agreement intends to prevent Iran from getting any nuclear weapons]

Based on those who know that the agreement intends to prevent Iran from getting any nuclear weapons (n=127)

Sure	74
Not sure	25
(VOL.) Don’t know	1
(VOL.) Refused	0

IMED2B. As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. International inspectors would monitor Iran’s facilities, and if Iran is caught breaking the agreement, economic sanctions would be imposed again. Do you think Congress should support or oppose this agreement?

Based on Form B half sample (n=519)

Support	44
Oppose	40
Unsure/Don’t know	14
(VOL.) Refused	3

IMED2B-1. If Congress votes to oppose the agreement, how upset would you be (READ)

Based on those who support Iran agreement/Form B half sample (n=226)

Very	17
Somewhat	34
Not too	16
Not upset at all	28
(VOL.) Don’t know	4
(VOL.) Refused	1

IMED2B-2. If Congress votes to support the agreement, how upset would you be (READ)

Based on those who oppose Iran agreement/Form B half sample (n=212)

Very	56
Somewhat	29
Not too	7
Not upset at all	6
(VOL.) Don’t know	1
(VOL.) Refused	1

COMBINED RESULTS FROM IMED2B, IMED2B-1, IMED2B-2

As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. International inspectors would monitor Iran’s facilities, and if Iran is caught breaking the agreement, economic sanctions would be imposed again. Do you think Congress should support or oppose this agreement?

Based on Form B half sample (n=519)

22 Support (and upset if Congress opposes agreement)

22 Support (but not upset if Congress opposes agreement)

16 No opinion

6 Oppose (but not upset if Congress supports agreement)

34 Oppose (and upset if Congress supports agreement)

IMED2B-3. Do you lean toward Congress supporting or opposing the agreement?

Based on those who are unsure about Iran agreement/Form B half sample (n=81)

Lean support	18
Lean oppose	16
(VOL.) Don’t lean	14
(VOL.) Don’t know	44
(VOL.) Refused	7

COMBINED RESULTS FROM IMED2B, IMED2B-3

Based on Form B half sample (n=519)

Support	47
Oppose	42
Unsure/Don’t know	8
(VOL.) Refused	3

DEMOGRAPHICS

I have one last set of questions to help us better understand the people who took part in our survey.

SEX Respondent’s sex [DO NOT ASK]

Male	49
Female	51

EMPLOY Are you now employed full-time, part-time, or not employed?

Employed full-time	44
Employed part-time	12
Not employed	43
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	*

PAR Are you the parent or guardian of any children under 18 years of age?

Yes	32
No	67
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	1

AGE What is your age?

18 to 29	22
30 to 49	30
50 to 64	27
65 and older	18
(VOL.) Refused	3

EDUC What is the highest level of school you have completed or the highest degree you have received? [DO NOT READ]

Less than high school (Grades 1-8 or no formal schooling)	6
High school incomplete (Grades 9-11 or Grade 12 with NO diploma)	7
High school graduate (Grade 12 with diploma or GED certificate)	28
Some college, no degree (includes some community college)	19
Two year associate degree from a college/university	12
Four year college or university degree/Bachelor’s degree	15
Some postgraduate or professional schooling, no postgraduate degree	1
Postgraduate or professional degree, including master’s, doctorate, medical or law degree	12
Don’t know/Refused	1

Summary: Race/Ethnicity

HISP Are you of Hispanic or Latino origin, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban or some other Spanish background?

RACE What is your race? Are you white, black, Asian, or some other race? [IF RESPONDENT SAYS HISPANIC OR LATINO, PROBE: Do you consider yourself a WHITE (Hispanic/Latino) or a BLACK (Hispanic/Latino)?

White, non-Hispanic	64
Total non-White	34
Black, non-Hispanic	12
Hispanic	15
Asian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic	4
Other, non-Hispanic	2
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	2

INC Last year – that is, in 2014 – approximately what was your total family income before taxes? Just tell me when I get to the right category.

Less than $10,000	10
$10,000 to under $20,000	12
$20,000 to under $30,000	13
$30,000 to under $40,000	8
$40,000 to under $50,000	7
$50,000 to under $75,000	13
$75,000 to under $100,000	7
$100,000 to under $150,000	9
$150,000 or over	6
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	14

REG Which of these statements best describes you? [READ IN ORDER]

Are you ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that you are registered to vote at your current address	71
Are you PROBABLY registered, but there is a chance your registration has lapsed [OR]	5
Are you NOT registered to vote at your current address?	23
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)	1